Population ageing, defined as an increase in the proportion of old people in the population, is a very long-standing phenomenon in Europe. It is the consequence of two trends, generally viewed as positive – improved fertility control and longer life expectancy. The process will speed up over the coming decades and affect societies which, in many cases, are ill-prepared for this change.
The research program presented below focuses on analyzing the exact mechanisms of population ageing from the end of the Second World War up to 2050 and the consequences for both communities and individuals. It addresses the impact of demographic ageing at national and infra-national levels via two types of question: What are the challenges raised by population ageing? And how should these challenges be addressed?
• Effects of changes in key determinants of demographic renewal –fertility, mortality, personal mobility– on the past and future age structure of Balkan countries, regions and major cities (simulation).
• Impact of demographic ageing on past and future welfare spending (health, pensions).
• Critical analysis of past population policies.
• Long-term prospective study of ageing Balkan societies (studies based on contrasting trend scenarios).
This programme also examines the renewal and ageing of the working-age population (aged 15-64 years) and its components: working-age population (employed & unemployed) and working population.
It aims to:
• track changes in these diverse populations since 1950 (total numbers, by sex, age, educational level, sectors of activity, occupational status, geographical location, etc.);
• analyse the renewal mechanisms: effect of birth rate, mortality and international migration;
• estimate the effects of international migration on the distribution of educational levels and draw conclusions on the possible existence of a "brain drain".